QUESTION: Sir John, what is your opinion about the planned Peace Talk between the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRPH) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)?
ANSWER: I will answer this in my personal analysis on the possible impact if GRPH will negotiate with the MILF.
First, let me give you a background about what MILF is. The MILF was originally called "New MNLF" and later became MILF. So basically, MILF is a faction of and is "Former MNLF".
MILF is a product of a black operation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) that intended to divide and conquer MNLF. Everyone knows that MILF was created by and is being used by the GRPH to divide the good MNLF of Nur Misuari, smudge dirt on Islam while they flaunt their slogan of Independent Islamic State which scares everyone.
MILF is a copycat of the MNLF. The MILF's original name was New MNLF, then changed its name to MILF that sounds like MNLF, it's flag design is almost same as the MNLF, and in 2001 it also has its own version of Tripoli Agreement that the MNLF had in 1976. MILF is used by two right wing dictators -- Marcos and Arroyo in terrorizing and burning entire towns. PNoy knows the history of the MILF. The MNLF will aggressively spread this truth until everyone knows it especially the young generations.
The MILF-GRPH Peace Talk is an unnecessary expense of public fund because it is similar to saying the GRPH is negotiating with an organization that is a secret subsidiary company of the AFP.
If the MILF will have their own version of negotiations with the GRPH, Mindanao will be divided between MNLF and MILF. The faction may be advantageous to some interested groups who benefit from war such as the AFP, but this is not good on the PEACE objective.
The 1976 MNLF-GRPH Tripoli Agreement has granted Autonomy of ARMM to MNLF alone. The Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) only recognizes the MNLF as an observer member in the OIC and Nur Misuari as a representative of the Bangsamoro People. When you insert someone else in the picture, such as the MILF or someone else other than Nur Misuari, it will just complicate and smudge the entire picture of peace.
To further their mimicry on the MNLF, the MILF and GRPH also managed to have a lovers' bonding in Tripoli Libya to stage-play their own version of a Tripoli Agreement in 2001 during Arroyo Administration. Among all places on earth, they choose Tripoli. The result of that was an ARMM during the Arroyo period that was so full of waste and fraud. I don't think it is good if the Aquino should resume the corruption and irregularity.
If the MILF-GRPH Negotiations will push through, the GRPH will basically be giving out signal that it rewards and encourages factionalism in MNLF. Well, creating and reinforcing the faction in the MNLF may be strategically advantageous to the war-income operators of the GRPH, but is is not good for PEACE. We don't know how many factions of MNLF the GRPH will talk to. Each time there is a faction, GRPH will open a new negotiation with the new group. Negotiating the MILF means "empowering" the MILF. We don't know when it will end.
There is no need to have a new separate Peace Agreement between the GRPH and MILF because in any manner, the members of MILF will enjoy the fruits and benefits of progress of the MNLF-GRPH Final Peace Agreement of 1996.
It is much better if GRPH will help in the effort integrating the MILF back to MNLF. We already have a milestone for this because the MILF already abandoned their call for Independent Islamic State and many MILF leaders has already expressed willingness to be reunited with MNLF. The GRPH would be helping towards the direction of PEACE if it will show goodwill to the MNLF if it will "undo" the error of creating the MILF during the time of Marcos. Of course, we cannot dictate upon the Aquino Administration.
I am a broker, I negotiate big deals, exclusively in behalf of buyers. In case the seller of a specific land is composed of many family members, the complexity has to be first reduced down to a simple one-on-one negotiation. To simplify the complicated, any seasoned broker would require the seller-side to talk among themselves and come up with an extrajudicial agreement that they be represented by only one person among them. One representative on the side seller will talk to one representative on the buyer side. In a one-on-one negotiation, it is very easy to come up with an agreement.
Brokering a Mindanao negotiation is simple case because it is only a one-on-one negotiation between two parties -- that is the GRPH on one side and MNLF on the other side. It is simple because it is not a multi-party negotiation and there is only one object they are negotiating about. One of the most important rule is there should be no new third party that anyone will suddenly bring into the table while in the middle of negotiation, meaning the MNLF should not be talking to anyone else except the GRPH and vice versa. When you start talking so someone else, that is blatant treachery. If you do that thing in negotiating a deal in the crime organization setting, in many instances the mistrust it creates would ignite an instantaneous bloody shootout -- not good for PEACE. If the GRPH will bring in another party in the negotiating table, then it is no more simple, it becomes complicated.
If the GRPH starts talking to some factions of MNLF, then I think I should make a strong recommendation to the MNLF that we should also start talking with other groups who are opposition to the Aquino Administration, or perhaps another neighboring nation like Malaysia. Is this what the Aquino Administration wants to happen? We don't care to know. However, we are very certain that the residues of the Arroyo Administration who are still occupying seats in the Aquino Administration right now are the ones pushing through with this MILF-GRPH deal. The MILF-GRPH deal is not good for the Aquino Administration, it is not good for the MNLF, it is not good for MILF, it is not good for the civilians, it is not good for Mindanao, it is not good for the PEACE objective. The MILF-GRPH is only good for the right wingers, dealers of killing machines, and cronies of the former dictators who are always there in the shadows controlling some factions in the AFP.
QUESTION: What is the impact of the MILF-GRPH Negotiation?
ANSWER: First, there will be a growing mistrust in the ranks of the MNLF against the GRPH, of course war will inevitably follow.
We can also expect complication in the MNLF-GRPH ongoing negotiation for the Bangsamoro Development Assistance Fund (BDAF).
The MNLF-GRPH Tripoli Agreement of 1976 and MNLF-GRPH Final Peace Agreement of 1996 is an agreement between GRPH and Nur Misuari of MNLF on a specific Bangsamoro Land territory. The Bangsamoro Land will only be represented by MNLF and MNLF only has one leader named Nur Misuari who is the signatory of the MNLF. Only Nur Misuari can use the Tripoli Agreement ofn 1976 and the FPA of 1996, no one else.
If the GRPH will start talking about the same specific territory with any other group, whether that is a splinter group from MNLF or not, the MNLF would consider it that the GRPH is negotiating to share only its own share.
Example, assuming the agreed sharing of Minerals is 30% to National GRPH and 70% to MNLF. If the GRPH will unilaterally decide to negotiate with other group such as MILF, then the MILF-GRPH will only be talking about how they will split the 30% share of the GRPH. Whether the MILF-GRPH negotiation will succeed or not, the 70% of the MNLF will remain intact with the MNLF, including all powers of MNLF Autonomy will remain intact with the MNLF. The MNLF will not share anything to anyone or any group outside its control, supervision, and accountability.
The best option for MILF is to dissolve its organization and come back to the MNLF. The MILF needed not follow the warpath footsteps of the MNLF in order to get itself its own version of the Tripoli Agreement that the MNLF got in 1976.
The MNLF welcomes the MILF. Commander Umbrakato, one of the strongest leaders of the MILF, has already returned to the MNLF along with the freedom fighters he command. There is plenty of room for everyone in MNLF. There are seven executive positions in each of the 100 private companies that will be formed by the Bangsamoro Corporation of the MNLF. The MNLF needs 700 top executives to run the private companies that will be created to implement the BDAF -- and these positions are open to all including the MILF.
The true Bangsamoro in the MILF and MNLF has a common enemy -- and that is the GRPH.
The key to unity is that the MILF has to voluntarily come back to Nur Misuari of MNLF without asking any concession -- they will be surprised that Nur will give them exciting positions in the new set-up in the MNLF. It is much beneficial for MILF if they will come back to MNLF and rally their cause within the MNLF framework instead of replicating the footsteps of the MNLF-GRPH Deal.
As a warning for the MILF, you should consider that this action of the GRPH is an act of treachery to the MNLF-GRPH Deal. If GRPH can be deliberately treacherous to MNLF, then they can also do the same thing to the MILF.
The MILF separated from MNLF on a primary pretense that it did not agree to the move of the MNLF to negotiate with the GRPH. The secondary pretense was difference in ideology because MNLF wants an "Egalitarian" Bangsamoro Government while MILF said they want "Independent Islamic State". But recently, MILF has changed a lot. I heard that the MILF already dropped their insistence of an Independent Islamic State and they are now wanting to negotiate with GRPH.
If the MILF dropped their pretenses, I think it is more advantageous for the MILF to just come back to the MNLF instead of talking to the GRPH.
